Anticipatory action to avert future crises

Climate change is making weather events more erratic and extreme, with significant impacts on agriculture, livelihoods, and health. Coupled with other shocks that ripple through the global landscape, including conflicts and economic downturns, it is more important than ever to protect and promote resilience among populations at risk while simultaneously seeking to address the social factors that produce vulnerability in the first place.

Anticipatory action is increasingly discussed as a way to predict with greater precision where risk will occur and to trigger early warning systems for releasing necessary resources and actions to avert crises. But what exactly is anticipatory action? How does it differ from other early warning systems? Where does, and should, the burden of proof lie in demonstrating that a substantiated anticipatory action could or has changed the course of a given situation? What is the role of counterfactuals? What are the moral and ethical considerations of such approaches?

Featuring experts from across the non-governmental, research, and government sectors, including, Guyo Malicha Roba, head of the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action, the World Food Programme, and Malawi's Department of Disaster Management Affairs (DODMA), this ANH2023 plenary session takes place during 'ANH Academy Week 2023' and brings together diverse perspectives and expertise to explore these questions and more.