REPORT
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

The state of climate and health research in the GCC

Introduction

Climate change affects GCC countries in various ways, and if not comprehensively addressed, can yield negative impacts on the health of its inhabitants. Further research is required to understand the risks and opportunities arising and what actions to take.
Climate science covers a wide range of topics, from the study of how greenhouse gasses trap heat in the atmosphere to the study of the impact of climate change on human societies, with a growing body of evidence suggesting that climate change is negatively impacting human health and wellbeing.
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been affected by historic climate change in a number of ways. Chiefly, the region has experienced an increase in average temperatures over the past four decades, which has led to higher summer temperatures and more frequent and intense heat waves. While the region has also experienced an increase in the intensity and frequency of dust storms, most of that is currently not directly attributed to anthropogenic climate change.

This 2022 report by Aeon Collective and Community Jameel provides a snapshot of the most current research on the state of climate and health in the GCC, giving equal value to what we do know, as well as what is still unknown. This report also highlights the need for further research, additional data and access to existing data that would bring to light new science backed evidence and knowledge for sound policy and decision making.
Click below to read summaries of select chapters from the report
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

Historic & future climate change in the GCC

AUTHORS
Nathalia Odnoletkova
Tadeusz Patzek
King Abdullah University Of Science And Technology (Kaust),
Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
Climate change affects GCC countries in various ways, and if not comprehensively addressed, can yield negative impacts on the health of its inhabitants. More research is needed to better understand the dynamics of current and future climate change in the GCC.
Global mean temperature has increased by around 0.19°C per decade from 1979. The GCC is a global hotspot for rising temperatures, with the rate of warming exceeding the global land average by a factor of two (0.48°C). Historical trends of climate in the GCC are investigated to present a snapshot of the climate over time. The trends in climate derived from the global climate reanalysis data such as ERA5 indicate increases in various temperature indices such as annual temperature, summer temperature, heat index (i.e., “feels like” temperature), the number of days with dangerous heat conditions, and cooling degree days in the GCC from 1979-2019.
SSome GCC cities such as Manama and Dubai saw average annual temperature changes in the range from 1.0 to 2.4°C. The heat index, which takes into account the effect of humidity on perceived temperature, is climbing even faster than the temperature itself. This poses a threat to the wellbeing of people in the region who do not have continuous access to cooling and drinking water.
FIGURE 1
Global surface air temperature anomalies (land and ocean), Northern Hemisphere Land air temperature anomalies and average temperature anomalies over GCC states land area for the period 1979-2019 and linear trends.
FIGURE 2
Increase in annual mean, summer mean, summer daily maximum temperature and Heat Index between 1979 and 2019, compared with the Global land and the Northern Hemisphere Land surface temperature increase over the same period of time.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

Projections of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula

AUTHORS
Ibrahim Hoteit
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST),
Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Future projection of global climate models may be subject to significant uncertainties due to various factors such as unresolved physics, imperfect parameterisations, coarse resolution, and limited observational datasets. So while most of the globally-relevant conclusions such as increasing trends in global temperatures are suggested to remain robust, the challenge comes at the local scales. Reliable spatiotemporal information about temperature and precipitation at the sub-district level under climate change conditions is critical for strategising and developing future plans for adaptation and mitigation at the regional level. Improved resolution and downscaling with a regional model using suitable and regionally-tuned physics could reduce some of the biases in the current global models. The dynamical variations behind reported changes in temperature and rainfall patterns over the KSA, for example, are not yet fully understood.
Within local contexts, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase-6 projections (CMIP6) estimate the climate change in the Arabian Peninsula in the next few decades. The projection indicates that the average temperature is expected to increase by 1-3°C in 2021-2060, while the annual mean precipitation is projected to increase by 25-120 mm and less than 30 mm, respectively, in the southwest Arabian Peninsula and the rest of the region in the same time period. In the long term (2081-2100), the average temperature is expected to rise by more than 5°C and the annual mean precipitation is projected to increase more than 120mm.
FIGURE 3
Spatial variation of projected changes in annual mean temperature and precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula for the near-term, mid-term, and long-term under the strong climate change scenario (SSP5-8.5), compared to the present climate (1986-2005), using the multi-model mean of 17 statistically independent CMIP6 GCMs.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

Climate change implications on food security: Food import vulnerability in the GCC

AUTHORS
Kenneth Strzepek & Gregory N. Sixt
Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (J-WAFS),
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Without effective adaptation, innovation, supply chain variability and water efficiency measures, climate change will increase food import vulnerability of the GCC countries.
There is an imminent need for assessing food-related risk factors in order to guide domestic and foreign policies towards future food security in the GCC region. The GCC's current domestic food production cannot meet the demand for food and the region is heavily reliant on imports for some commodities from a few supplying nations, making it vulnerable to geopolitical events and supply chain disruptions
Future climate and demographic changes will impact world market prices and food supply from traditional trading partners of the GCC, making the region even more vulnerable to geopolitical events and supply chain issues. Desalination of seawater is an adaptation strategy employed by all GCC countries to reduce water stress and help meet urban water demand and provide a source of irrigation for highly efficient production of horticulture crops.
TABLE 1
Imports for key food commodities by GCC and West Asian Countries
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

Natural and anthropogenic air pollution in the GCC: Impact on air quality and public health

AUTHORS
G. Stenchikov, A. Ukhov, S. Mostamandy, Y. Alshehri, A. Costa,
King Abullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia

J. Lelieveld, S. Chowdhury,
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany

C. Borrego, J. Ferreira, H. Relvas 3, D. Lopes, A.I.
Miranda University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
Evidence is mounting that much lower air pollution levels than previously thought can cause harm to health. This threat may potentially be further exacerbated by climate change.
Temperature and air pollution are highly correlated, and can have a synergetic impact on human health. Health effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollution are a leading environmental health concern worldwide according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This is especially important in the GCC, where natural dust can cause high levels of PM pollution in both rural and urban areas. The modeled data for air pollution levels show that the annually averaged PM surface concentrations in the Middle East’s major cities are very high. The main sources of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols were found to be industrial, traffic, and household emissions, which contribute significantly to air pollution, especially on the west and east coasts of Saudi Arabia and over the Arabian Gulf. This highlights an opportunity to impose stricter requirements on anthropogenic pollution.
The last update of air quality guidelines by the WHO was in 2005, recommending upper threshold values for fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 5m and 2.5 5m (PM10 and PM2.5), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Some countries have adopted the guideline for annual mean NO2 of 40 5g/m3, and a few countries that for PM2.5 of 10 5g/m3, whereas many countries have defined higher threshold levels or do not manage air quality at all.
FIGURE 4
Annual mean distribution of PM2.5 over the Middle East, derived from satelite oversations
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

Population growth in the GCC: A multiplier effect on climate impacts

AUTHORS
G. Stenchikov, A. Ukhov, S. Mostamandy, Y. Alshehri, A. Costa,
King Abullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia

J. Lelieveld, S. Chowdhury,
Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany

C. Borrego, J. Ferreira, H. Relvas 3, D. Lopes, A.I.
Miranda University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal
Evidence is mounting that much lower air pollution levels than previously thought can cause harm to health. This threat may potentially be further exacerbated by climate change.
Temperature and air pollution are highly correlated and can have a synergetic impact on human health. Health effects of particulate matter (PM) air pollution are a leading environmental health concern worldwide, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This is especially important in the GCC, where natural dust can cause high levels of PM pollution in both rural and urban areas. The modeled data for air pollution levels show that the annually averaged PM surface concentrations in the Middle East’s major cities are very high. The main sources of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols were found to be industrial, traffic, and household emissions, which contribute significantly to air pollution, especially on the west and east coasts of Saudi Arabia and over the Arabian Gulf. This highlights an opportunity to impose stricter requirements on anthropogenic pollution.
The last update of air quality guidelines by the WHO was in 2005, recommending upper threshold values for fine particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 5m and 2.5 5m (PM10 and PM2.5), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Some countries have adopted the guideline for annual mean NO2 of 40 5g/m3, and a few countries that for PM2.5 of 10 5g/m3, while many countries have defined higher threshold levels or do not manage air quality at all.
FIGURE 5
Demographic statistics for GCC countries
Source: Data from UN population Division via World Bank.
Notes: The adjusted crude birth rate is calculated by adjusting the denominator of the population to equal twice the female population. This helps compensate for the disproportionately male foreign labor force in some GCC countries.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

Heat stressors, heat stroke and implications on Hajj

AUTHORS
Elfatih A B Eltahir,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The Gulf region, like other parts of the world, grapples with the challenge of sustainable development amidst economic and population growth, while also addressing the environmental concerns posed by global climate change. This change, primarily due to increased greenhouse gas emissions, affects ecosystems, weather extremes, water availability, agriculture, and most notably, human health. Three specific impacts of climate change on human health in the Gulf are:

Heatwaves: The Gulf is already known for its intense heatwaves, especially in cities like Dhahran and Dubai. Studies predict that, if current emission trends continue, these cities will experience intolerable heatwaves, with wet bulb temperatures exceeding 35°C. This could lead to increased incidences of heat strokes and potential fatalities, especially in areas like Makkah during the Hajj pilgrimage.

Climate Change and Hajj: Hajj, a significant Islamic pilgrimage, sees millions of Muslims, especially the elderly, gather in Makkah annually. Due to the lunar calendar, the Hajj dates shift approximately 11 days earlier each solar year. Research indicates that, in the coming decades, heat stress during Hajj will reach dangerous levels, even with mitigation efforts. The health risks during Hajj are influenced by the intensity of heat, the vulnerability of the pilgrims, and the capacity of Hajj facilities. As the number of Muslims and thus potential pilgrims grows, managing these challenges becomes even more complex. Strategies might include shifting Hajj to cooler months or limiting the number of participants.

Potential Emergence of Dengue Fever: Dengue, transmitted by the Aedes mosquito, is rapidly spreading globally. While the Gulf region hasn't faced significant Dengue challenges in the past, the future might be different due to population growth, urbanization, climate change, and increased travel. Many expatriates in the Gulf come from Dengue-prevalent regions, like India, potentially introducing the virus. The primary concern is the establishment of the Aedes mosquito in urban Gulf environments. Learning from Singapore's experience, early prevention is more effective than addressing the disease after its establishment.

In conclusion, the Gulf region needs to address these potential health impacts of climate change through research, planning, and proactive measures.
FIGURE 6
Histogram of the daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax) during summerfor each GHG scenario’s ensemble.
Source: Pal and Elfaith, 2015
Notes: The histogram bin interval is 0.5°C and the values on the y-axis indicate the number of exceedances. Values indicated within each plot represent the 50th and 95th percentile event thresholds. TWMAX is the maximum daily value averaged over a 6h window.
CHAPTER SUMMARY
Open Book A solid styled icon from Orion Icon Library.

Climate impacts on communicable diseases

AUTHORS
Thomas Rawson,Patrick Doohan, Katharina Hauck, Kris A. Murray,
Neil Ferguson — Imperial College London, London, UK
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Jameel Institute
The Jameel Institute has been instrumental in providing policy advice on pandemic responses globally. They've developed mathematical models considering factors like population density and socioecological behaviors, which are intertwined with the climate crisis. The institute's research delves into the relationship between climate change and communicable diseases, focusing on the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Vector-borne diseases, especially those spread by mosquitoes, are influenced by climate changes. Mosquitoes, being temperature-sensitive, play a crucial role in disease transmission. Beyond vector-borne diseases, forecasting diseases spread via human-to-human interactions in relation to climate change is challenging. The COVID-19 pandemic provides a vast dataset to study these relationships, with early research suggesting favourable conditions for transmission in cold and dry climates.

The GCC nations, vulnerable to climate change, face unique challenges due to their demographic composition, with a high percentage of expatriates. This results in a higher number of imported disease cases. The region's distinctive transmission dynamics mean that global disease modeling might not directly apply to the GCC.

A focused literature review revealed a significant information gap regarding climate change and health research specific to the GCC. Policy advice emphasizes the need for increased cross-border research and data gathering. Collaborative initiatives, like the European Climate and Health Observatory and the Middle East Consortium for Infectious Disease Surveillance (MECIDS), have shown success in monitoring and suppressing disease outbreaks.

A "trans-disciplinary approach" is advised, involving experts from various fields, from ecology to social sciences. Effective communication between model developers and users is crucial. The impending climate crisis necessitates the development of robust surveillance systems, international partnerships, and research capacities to address the challenges of communicable diseases in a changing climate.
FIGURE 7
Projected number of months of climate suitability for Aedes aegypti and albopictus mosquitoes respectively, under the more extreme RCP 8.5 temperature increase forecasts.
Source: Ryan et al. 2019